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Term of the Day

Natural history study

A natural history study is a preplanned observational study intended to track the course of a disease over time, identifying demographic, genetic, environmental and other variables that correlate with its development and outcomes in the absence of intervention, or under standard of care. Designs may be retrospective (chart review of existing records) or prospective (longitudinal follow-up of a cohort or registry).

Natural history data is particularly important in rare and paediatric diseases, where randomised placebo-controlled trials may be infeasible or unethical. The FDA (guidance on rare disease natural history studies, 2019) and the EMA accept well-designed natural history studies to define endpoints and biomarkers, identify patient subgroups, estimate sample sizes and, in some cases, serve as external or historical control arms for single-arm trials supporting orphan products.

Because they are non-interventional, natural history studies fall outside the CTR and are governed by national law (for example France's MR-003 or MR-004 reference methodologies) and by the GDPR. They typically involve secondary use of medical records, long-term follow-up, genetic data and small populations in which anonymisation is rarely achievable, so pseudonymisation, a DPIA and a robust research legal basis under Art. 9(2)(j) are essential. Registries maintained by patient organisations or academic consortia raise additional questions of joint controllership and data access governance.

R

Real-world evidence (RWE)

Real-world evidence (RWE) is the clinical evidence about the usage and potential benefits or risks of a medical product derived from the analysis of real-world data. Whereas RWD describes the raw inputs (records, claims, registries, device data), RWE is the output of a structured study design and analysis applied to them: a comparative effectiveness study, a post-authorisation safety study, an external control arm or a burden-of-illness analysis.

Regulators have moved from cautious acceptance to structured frameworks. The FDA, under the 21st Century Cures Act, issued its RWE Framework (2018) and a series of guidances on data standards, registries and EHR-derived data, and accepts RWE for label expansions and post-marketing requirements. The EMA and the Heads of Medicines Agencies published a Big Data Steering Group roadmap, launched the DARWIN EU federated network, and use RWE in pharmacovigilance and in the assessment of medicines for rare diseases. Health technology assessment bodies under Regulation (EU) 2021/2282 increasingly rely on RWE for relative effectiveness. Methodological standards (ISPOR-ISPE good practices, ENCePP, HARPER protocol template, target-trial emulation) address confounding, bias and reproducibility.

The evidence itself is usually aggregated and therefore not personal data, but its generation is a processing operation on pseudonymised health data governed by the GDPR and national research law, with the same requirements as any secondary use: a research legal basis, Art. 89 safeguards, a DPIA, clear allocation of controller roles between data holders, sponsors and analytics vendors, and transfer mechanisms where analyses are performed outside the EEA. Federated approaches, in which analysis code travels to the data rather than the reverse, are increasingly used to reduce these burdens.

Does a large real-world dataset automatically produce reliable evidence?

No. Dataset size alone does not establish whether an analysis can answer the clinical question. RWE depends on suitable data and an appropriate study design and analysis. Define the question first, then assess data relevance, completeness, missing information and potential bias before treating the results as evidence for a decision.